So, Now What?

Untangling the current mess... and taking concrete action.

Things in the news are a bit... overwhelming right now. Here's a short list of some of the most impactful events:

• The war in Ukraine, the largest war in Europe since WW2. Good news: Ukraine and the West are united and continuing to drive Russia back. Bad news: Russia keeps threatening the use of “tactical” nuclear weapons, while Putin appears to be increasingly erratic, unhealthy, and desperate. With the Cold War now three decades behind us, game theory and mutually assured destruction are suddenly highly relevant.

• Inflation is destroying savings and real world wage growth. Due to supply disruptions, it appears to be a case of "too much money, not enough goods." Unfortunately, global supply issues continue in a weirdly chaotic fashion, making money supply reduction the apparent solution.

• The Supreme Court, as part of the leaked Roe v Wade opinion, appears to have taken a stance that precedent is no longer relevant for decision making. This effectively throws the entire legal framework of the United States into chaos, as it actively encourages judges at every level to issue opinions regardless of precedent in the hopes that the Supreme Court will agree. In essence, the united five justices now rule without any effective checks or blocks.

• For all of the reasons above, the Federal Reserve is now taking steps to put inflation in check. This (as well as the rest of the above) is spooking markets, leading to a painful combination of current inflation and a significant stock market crash.

• The stock market crash is bad, but it's nothing compared to the crypto reckoning. Crypto currency and the rest of the "disruptive web3 markets" are taking huge losses and/or being wiped out. Particularly brutal are the so-called "stable" crypto currencies that were supposed to be linked to the US dollar. On a societal level the collapse of crypto and the environmentally destructive mining as a good thing. On a personal level, there are many people that invested money in a desperate attempt to capture crypto returns that have now been completely wiped out, with several reports of suicide.

• Climate change is still a huge thing. This one I’m just going to have to punt to a later newsletter, but for now you can check out this Kurzgesagt video for one perspective. At least the war in Ukraine and sky high prices for petroleum products are leading to demand destruction.

• The economic issues are particularly bad news for the Democrats going into the midterms. The behavior of the Supreme Court is a huge wildcard. Will inflation ease? Will the Supreme Court release other, potentially even more disruptive opinions this summer? It’s impossible to say, but the consequences of a Republican-controlled House and/or Senate would be very significant.

It's... a lot.

It's a lot to process. A lot to understand. The stakes are real and potentially catastrophic. It's hard not to feel overwhelmed.

You are not alone in that feeling.

In the very short term, the main thing is probably to focus on self-care. Blow off some steam. Go for a walk. Lose yourself in your favorite media. Remember old strategies and find new ones for managing stress. Unfortunately, regardless... it's all still there, waiting, the next time you check the news. That’s the difference between temporary stress and the road to burnout and depression.

All of which begs the question, what, if anything, can you actually do in the face of all of this?

I've been thinking a lot about this lately, and here are some ideas. But first, let’s look at a roadmap through 2024.

What's Next

Here are a few events to keep in mind when planning, along with a few guesses as to the outcome.

The 1/6 Commission will most likely present findings this summer. The aftermath of those findings probably spells the end of any remaining illusions around the state of the Republican party. It's impossible to say if there will be any meaningful consequences for any current or prior federal office holder, but everything so far indicates that no major stakeholders will be held accountable. It will be left to the voters in November 2022 and 2024.

The midterm elections in November 2022 are widely expected to result in the House and/or the Senate switching to Republican control. Biden struggles to pass legislation and get confirmations done today. The safe bet is to assume that Congress will struggle to even pass continuing budgets, much less anything else.

Which, in turn, leads to the election in 2024. The primaries will be extraordinary, with 2023 consumed with questions around Biden and/or Trump running again. Obviously, health issues could affect both candidates, and Trump might (theoretically) run into legal trouble. But perhaps not. It’s impossible to say. If Trump doesn’t run, it’s likely that Abbott and/or DeSantis will run in what is often referred to as the “Trump lane.”

This is, of course, highly speculative, but generally speaking recessions in the modern era last six months to a year and a half. It's awful timing for the 2022 elections, but the odds are that at least the economy will have stabilized by the 2024 election.

I suspect that 2022-2023 are going to be very telling for the federal government as an institution. The ability of the federal government to operate effectively will be sorely tested over the next two years. Both Congress and the Supreme Court are undergoing earthquakes as they poll worse and worse. By the time 2024 rolls around, we will have gotten a much clearer view of how the governors and state legislatures will respond to the actions of the federal government.

To illustrate: what will be the response be if/when the Supreme Court makes widely expected moves to strike down marriage and racial equality? Will the governors of California and New York take action to protect their citizens, or will they submit to the rule of the conservative justices?

We are almost certainly looking at major state/federal conflicts over the next few years over the actions of the Supreme Court, with a paralyzed Congress.

What Can You Do?

Panic and stress are really just symptoms. In the end, you have to take action - even inaction is a form of action.

So, what can you do? On a practical level, here are some concrete actions you can take.

• Save money and stick with a sane investment portfolio. It's tempting to try to take big swings, especially if you are worried about a potentially catastrophic crash. Beware of locking in what are likely temporary losses. This isn't a financial advice newsletter, but "don't panic" is always good advice.

• If you aren’t already, start thinking about moving to a community with shared interests and political views. The Supreme Court is likely to focus on dismantling federal rights and systems in favor of a "state's rights" vision of the world. It's very likely that the range of life experiences between different states will become much more dramatically different over the next few years.

• If you are thinking about moving, for whatever reason, make vacation plans to visit those locations extensively in 2022 and 2023. Perhaps you lean blue and live in a red state (or vice versa) - now is the time to explore moving. Perhaps you are so concerned about the state of affairs you are thinking of moving to another country. Regardless, make plans to visit potential destinations for at least a week if possible. If that sounds too expensive or logistically difficult, well, actually moving is much, much harder. If the only way to move is to take another job, good news - at least unemployment is at an all-time low.

• If you just flat out can’t move, make connections with like minded individuals in your community if at all possible. Those connections and the support they offer will be increasingly critical.

• Continue to support groups politically that support your views - either financially or volunteering. The local offices may be a way to start building real world connections as well. Get out of your head and off social media in favor of real world connections.

• On a broader level, think about the role of the federal government in your life. What rights do you depend on that are guaranteed by the federal government, and what happens if those vanish? How do you feel about Congress and the Supreme Court? How will the events of 2022 and 2024 affect you? Don’t be vague or theoretical about it - write it out on paper or digitally. I find fishbone diagrams to be helpful for this kind of analysis.

As a final suggestion, I would highly recommend checking out two works of media. The first is the HBO series Chernobyl. It's an amazing look at a society in decay and the catastrophic consequences. The second is Good Night and Good Luck, a look McCarthyism in the United States. Why those two? Both reflect the struggles of the individual reconciling with terrible times and with very different endings.

Equally important, perhaps by watching those shows you will realize that you are not alone - not now, and not then. The story goes on.

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It was these very questions around the federal government (starting in 2016) that led to me writing A More Perfect Union: Reimagining The United States as a European Union-style Federation. As a potential solution, or even just a meditation on the role of the federal government, I hope it offers at least one potential solution to the crisis of federal governance that avoids civil war.